Metastatic Recurrence Risk After Early-Stage Breast Cancer Drops
Rates of metastatic recurrence — early-stage breast cancer coming back in an area of the body away from the breast — dropped from 1990 to 2009 in women enrolled in clinical trials, according to a study published in the journal The Lancet.
Key takeaways
Overall, women diagnosed with breast cancer since 2000 have about a 20% lower risk of metastatic recurrence than women diagnosed in the 1990s.
For estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, women diagnosed since 2000 have a 25% lower risk of metastatic recurrence than women diagnosed in the 1990s.
For estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer, women diagnosed since 2000 have a 19% lower risk of metastatic recurrence than women diagnosed in the 1990s.
More than 80% of the drop was due to better treatments after surgery and changes in the characteristics of the cancers.
What the results mean for you
The results of this study show that treatments after surgery — called adjuvant treatments by doctors — developed since 1990 are lowering the risk that early-stage cancer will come back someplace in the body away from the breast. These treatments include Verzenio (chemical name: abemaciclib), Perjeta (chemical name: pertuzumab), Kadcyla (chemical name: T-DM1 or ado-trastuzumab emtansine), and Keytruda (chemical name: pembrolizumab).
It’s also important to know that treatments after surgery only reduce the risk of metastatic recurrence if you receive them as prescribed. If you’re having trouble staying on track with your treatments after surgery, talk to your doctor right away. If side effects are a problem, there are usually medicines or other steps you can take to help. You also may be able to switch to a different medicine.
If you’re struggling financially, there are organizations that can help you pay for your breast cancer care.
About the study
Earlier studies estimated the risk of metastatic recurrence for women diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, but the estimates were based on women diagnosed and treated between 1976 and 2011. Also, few of these earlier studies looked at women with hormone receptor-negative disease. The researchers did this analysis to provide more accurate information on metastatic recurrence rates.
The researchers analyzed information from more than 155,000 women who were in 151 clinical trials.
Detailed results
The risk of metastatic recurrence happening 10 years after a diagnosis of node-negative (no cancer in the lymph nodes), hormone receptor-positive breast cancer was:
10.1% in 1990-1999
7.3% in 2000-2009
For node-negative, hormone receptor-negative disease, rates were:
18.3% in 1990-1999
11.9% in 2000-2009
For hormone receptor-positive disease with cancer in one to three nodes, 10-year metastatic recurrence rates were:
19.9% in 1990-1999
14.7% in 2000-2009
For hormone receptor-negative disease, rates were:
31.9% in 1990-1999
22.1% in 2000-2009
For hormone receptor-positive disease with cancer in four to nine lymph nodes, 10 year metastatic recurrence rates were:
39.6% in 1990-1999
28.5% in 2000-2009
For hormone receptor-negative disease, rates were:
47.8% in 1990-1999
36.5% in 2000-2009
Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group.Reductions in recurrence in women with early breast cancer entering clinical trials between 1990 and 2009: a pooled analysis of 155 746 women in 151 trials. The Lancet, Volume 404, Issue 10461, 1407-1418.
Updated on April 9, 2025